July 1st, 2025
By Rob Haddock | Logistics
In today’s volatile logistics landscape, lane-level forecasting and strategic carrier partnerships are the linchpins for balancing cost, service and capacity. The right approach can mean the difference between on-time, on-budget delivery and costly disruptions. As supply chains face unprecedented uncertainty, companies must adapt their transportation strategies to stay competitive and resilient.
Lane-Level (Tactical Volume) Forecasting: From Flawed Historical Data Gut Feel to Granular Precision
In the time before AI, annual, high-level estimates based on history leave too much to chance. Fluctuations from sourcing changes, promotions, seasonality and market shocks often blindsided transportations planners. Relying on broad average historical estimates will lead to missed opportunities and costly last-minute adjustments.
Now, companies can build lane-by-lane, weekly volume projections using sales forecasts and Power BI, if they are serious about improving service and reducing costs. Carriers, who receive more detailed and accurate projections, by origin-destination pair, not just broad annual numbers, can engineer a more effective lower cost network. This tactical approach empowers both shippers and carriers to plan resources more accurately and avoid surprises, yielding a wide variety of benefits:
- Reduce carrier base. Focusing on fewer, stronger partnerships streamlines communication and improves accountability.
- On-time, on-budget performance. Consistent execution during global disruptions highlights the effectiveness of robust lane volume forecasting.
- Balance cost savings with service. Optimizing for both cost and service ensures long-term customer loyalty and profitability.
Stat to know:
Companies using tactical transportation lane forecasting can see a 10%+ improvement in capacity forecasting, a 20% reduction in unplanned transportation costs and a 5-10%-25 increase in on-time deliveries. These gains translate directly to competitive advantage and bottom-line impact, according to leading industry transportation strategy and market intelligence organizations.
Carrier Partnerships: Less is More
A focused carrier base means deeper relationships, better service and more leverage in negotiations. Volume commitments and long-term agreements drive down rates and improve reliability. Spreading volume too thin dilutes influence and can lead to inconsistent service levels.
Weekly volume projections help carriers plan resources. Carriers can allocate trucks and drivers more efficiently, reducing the risk of missed pickups or delays.
Strategic collaboration enables proactive capacity management. Open communication allows both parties to anticipate and solve problems before they escalate. Dedicated fleets and customer backhauls boost efficiency during disruptions. Leveraging every available asset maximizes utilization and keeps costs in check, even when the unexpected happens.
The Evolution: Tactical Lane Volume Forecasting Gets Smarter
- What changes: Forecasts can now account for promotional spikes, seasonal swings and even weather events. But even the best software only captures about 85% of volume accurately, manual refinement is still needed. Technology is advancing, but human expertise remains essential for fine-tuning and validation.
- Industry trend: A huge opportunity exists to extend the material requirements planning process forward to incorporate transportation lane volumes. The same finished goods forecast that determines the amount of ingredient and packaging can be leveraged for transportation lane volumes.Early warning systems help carriers avoid the costly spot market and improve service reliability.
- Why it matters: Enhanced visibility lets carriers plan ahead, reducing the scramble for last-minute capacity and minimizing costly spot market moves. Proactive planning is the antidote to volatility, keeping both costs and service levels in check.
Disruption-Proofing the Supply Chain
Raw material shortages (think aluminum cans), port strikes and natural disasters are now routine. Disruptions are no longer rare events—they’re a constant threat that must be managed proactively.
New playbook
Determining where to start on your journey to an optimized transportation network is important – you need to know where you’re going in order to get there most efficiently. Here are a few guidelines to achieving your distribution goals:
- Build contingency plans and alternative sourcing/routing options. Having backup plans in place ensures continuity when the unexpected strikes.
- Develop routing guides that include secondary carriers tied to the dynamic market via API for real-time lane quotes
- Leverage dedicated fleets and customer backhauls. Flexible asset use helps maintain service and control costs during capacity crunches.
- Maintain flexibility to shift resources as needed. Agility is key to navigating today’s unpredictable supply chain environment.
The AI Opportunity: Promise vs. Reality
AI can automate anomaly detection, prioritize issues, and provide conversational interfaces for real-time status updates. It also enhances demand sensing and forecasting accuracy. AI promises to make supply chain management faster, smarter and more responsive.
Today,AI-driven forecasting delivers 10-15% higher accuracy and up to 50% lower inventory costs. Early adopters are already seeing measurable benefits, but the technology is still maturing.
AI tools analyze traffic, weather and delivery deadlines to optimize routes and reduce costs. Real-time data integration is improving decision-making, but human oversight is still required. Most current tools still require manual oversight—AI is not yet a “set it and forget it” solution. The human touch remains vital for interpreting results and managing exceptions.
As AI matures, expect more proactive communication on delivery delays, smarter exception management, and continuous improvement in forecasting precision. The next wave of AI innovation will further close the gap between planning and execution.
Why is the development of Lane volume forecasting at its infancy stage?
- Most companies’ senior leadership lack the understanding of the complexity of transportation, thus investments and staffing improvements are deferred
- Many companies struggle with an accurate sales forecast to begin with and are focused on trying to improve their requirement signals to packaging and ingredient suppliers
- Carrier partners struggle with what to do with better information. A shipper who invests in lane projection accuracy should be rewarded with lower costs, although if a carriers’ network is engineered across a series of companies whose projections are inaccurate, the better shipper’s projections are lost in the noise of the network. Carriers will build in inefficiency costs to a shipper’s rate based on their inaccuracy history. The opportunity for the shipper is to negotiate lower rates of 5-10% if they can prove their lane projection accuracy has improved.
The Bottom Line
- Lane-level forecasting and focused carrier partnerships are proven levers for cost, service, and capacity optimization. These strategies are essential for thriving in a world where disruption is the new normal.
- AI is poised to revolutionize transportation management, but human expertise and manual refinement remain essential. Technology is an enabler, not a replacement, for skilled supply chain professionals.
- The winners will be those who blend data-driven precision with flexible, resilient operations—ready for whatever the market throws next. Success in transportation is about combining the best of both worlds: smart tools and smart people.
Tactical Lane forecasting, strategic carrier relationships and AI-powered insights are the new table stakes for transportation leaders. The future? Smarter, faster and more resilient supply chains—built lane by lane, week by week, with both tech and tenacity. The journey to supply chain excellence is ongoing, and those who adapt will lead the way.
The first step in transportation optimization is understanding there is an opportunity to improve the way you’re moving your freight. The second step is to contact an expert in the field like Demand Chain AI.
